Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MCN -600 SFA +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -7.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -8.7 (-6.7) | 137.6 (-7.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -6.9 (-4.9) | 140.2 (-10.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -6.2 (-4.2) | 143.6 (-13.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -6.2 (-4.2) | 140.8 (-10.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MCN 76 – 59 SFA |
| Feb 3, 2026 | SFA 67 – 60 MCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MCN 95 – 64 SFA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | MCN 79 – 59 SFA |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SFA 86 – 76 MCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 20-2 |
| Home | 14-0 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#58) | 6.5 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#50) | 1.16 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#54) | 1.61 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#39) | 0.523 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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