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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–7 on winners
spread MAE 6.2
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-0.2 | 123.9 | 48% | 68–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 148.3 | 68% | 74–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 150.2 | 81% | 83–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 137.1 | 77% | 82–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.2 | 151.7 | 75% | 67–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 142.8 | 66% | 78–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.6 | 128.0 | 77% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 151.2 | 89% | 67–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 143.3 | 82% | 61–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 137.8 | 69% | 78–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.5 | 134.2 | 22% | 76–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 123.3 | 56% | 55–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 141.9 | 58% | 73–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 133.2 | 88% | 59–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 155.2 | 90% | 67–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 142.0 | 50% | 85–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 137.9 | 74% | 64–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.9 | 154.1 | 77% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.