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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Notre Dame
@
Boston College
|
+8.4 | 138.3 | 81% | 59–63 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Stetson
|
+9.3 | 137.9 | 83% | 77–70 | ✗ |
American University
@
Loyola Maryland
|
-4.7 | 140.1 | 28% | 66–52 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Le Moyne
|
+0.4 | 141.3 | 53% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Saint Francis
|
+0.5 | 144.2 | 53% | 81–71 | ✗ |
Columbia
@
Yale
|
+8.0 | 146.0 | 80% | 70–89 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SE Louisiana
|
+0.8 | 131.4 | 55% | 73–68 | ✗ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alabama State
|
+6.6 | 134.8 | 76% | 55–72 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Nicholls
|
+8.7 | 149.9 | 82% | 75–78 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
-6.9 | 143.9 | 24% | 81–83 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Florida A&M
|
+1.3 | 133.1 | 54% | 65–52 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
McNeese
|
+12.4 | 147.8 | 88% | 69–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Hampton
|
-0.2 | 150.2 | 43% | 81–80 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Tennessee
|
+9.8 | 160.4 | 82% | 66–85 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Western Carolina
|
+2.0 | 154.5 | 57% | 75–71 | ✗ |
Butler
@
Xavier
|
+5.9 | 146.6 | 72% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.