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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas State
@
Texas Tech
|
+15.2 | 132.6 | 89% | 71–82 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
+4.7 | 131.0 | 72% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
Duquesne
|
-0.3 | 137.8 | 52% | 61–48 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Kentucky
|
+5.3 | 133.5 | 73% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Alabama
|
+2.5 | 151.2 | 61% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Texas
|
+16.7 | 139.1 | 90% | 72–78 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Coppin State
|
+10.7 | 150.1 | 85% | 77–81 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Miami
|
-2.3 | 136.0 | 42% | 67–65 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Mississippi State
|
-2.8 | 138.7 | 32% | 63–78 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Michigan State
|
-4.8 | 152.9 | 31% | 45–68 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Marquette
|
+1.6 | 140.2 | 55% | 65–54 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
TCU
|
-0.2 | 139.2 | 51% | 93–64 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
South Florida
|
+1.1 | 130.4 | 56% | 61–51 | ✗ |
Saint Joseph's
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+12.6 | 152.6 | 88% | 57–83 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Syracuse
|
+10.6 | 144.9 | 86% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Richmond
|
+4.0 | 142.9 | 69% | 73–80 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Louisville
|
+1.9 | 133.7 | 61% | 71–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.