← All models
Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama A&M
@
Austin Peay
|
+9.6 | 144.7 | 80% | 81–71 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Princeton
|
+5.2 | 141.0 | 68% | 84–77 | ✗ |
App State
@
Wake Forest
|
+8.1 | 147.8 | 71% | 76–87 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Cincinnati
|
+7.9 | 143.2 | 78% | 72–73 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Villanova
|
+7.1 | 130.7 | 49% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Boise State
|
-1.6 | 141.4 | 36% | 60–53 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Mississippi State
|
-1.8 | 129.4 | 47% | 69–51 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
BYU
|
+6.6 | 140.1 | 71% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Creighton
|
+9.9 | 140.3 | 83% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Arizona
|
+19.6 | 158.5 | 89% | 65–85 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
North Carolina
|
+19.7 | 130.2 | 89% | 62–90 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Illinois
|
+11.5 | 144.8 | 84% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
South Carolina
|
+0.7 | 136.6 | 45% | 87–73 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Dayton
|
-0.0 | 140.8 | 46% | 60–63 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Texas
|
-0.1 | 142.1 | 49% | 44–56 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Kentucky
|
+8.8 | 161.4 | 77% | 80–76 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Iowa State
|
+15.1 | 135.0 | 88% | 65–82 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Gonzaga
|
+5.2 | 144.8 | 66% | 65–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.