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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Notre Dame
@
Boston College
|
+9.0 | 138.7 | 80% | 59–63 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Stetson
|
+9.4 | 137.7 | 83% | 77–70 | ✗ |
American University
@
Loyola Maryland
|
-4.3 | 141.0 | 26% | 66–52 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Le Moyne
|
+0.5 | 141.2 | 45% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Saint Francis
|
+0.4 | 145.0 | 49% | 81–71 | ✗ |
Columbia
@
Yale
|
+8.2 | 146.2 | 78% | 70–89 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SE Louisiana
|
+0.4 | 132.3 | 50% | 73–68 | ✗ |
Alabama A&M
@
Alabama State
|
+6.4 | 135.5 | 71% | 55–72 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Nicholls
|
+8.8 | 150.6 | 81% | 75–78 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
-6.1 | 144.7 | 26% | 81–83 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Florida A&M
|
+0.9 | 133.8 | 40% | 65–52 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
McNeese
|
+12.9 | 148.2 | 86% | 69–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Hampton
|
-0.2 | 150.1 | 41% | 81–80 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Tennessee
|
+8.6 | 157.2 | 81% | 66–85 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Western Carolina
|
+2.2 | 153.8 | 48% | 75–71 | ✗ |
Butler
@
Xavier
|
+5.8 | 147.9 | 73% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.