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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-6.4 | 139.5 | 36% | 61–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 145.5 | 52% | 65–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.4 | 144.2 | 86% | 93–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 147.5 | 65% | 88–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.5 | 131.8 | 78% | 54–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 147.2 | 46% | 62–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 155.9 | 80% | 60–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.3 | 135.1 | 91% | 58–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 140.0 | 70% | 74–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.6 | 139.8 | 75% | 74–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 126.3 | 86% | 61–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 147.7 | 57% | 64–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 149.6 | 86% | 62–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 132.6 | 49% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 155.7 | 49% | 86–77 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.