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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
App State
@
Norfolk State
|
+1.0 | 129.8 | 61% | 53–54 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Boise State
|
-0.2 | 139.8 | 52% | 84–85 | ✗ |
UCLA
@
Michigan State
|
-2.0 | 137.0 | 41% | 86–80 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Florida
|
+1.2 | 137.8 | 54% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Arkansas
|
+0.2 | 157.2 | 52% | 68–85 | ✓ |
Drexel
@
Illinois
|
+15.7 | 146.0 | 88% | 49–78 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Texas Tech
|
+2.4 | 129.8 | 58% | 53–65 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Ohio State
|
+12.1 | 157.0 | 86% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Hartford
@
Baylor
|
+15.5 | 143.0 | 86% | 55–79 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+2.2 | 124.7 | 59% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Tennessee
|
+7.1 | 132.5 | 76% | 70–56 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Oklahoma State
|
+5.5 | 144.1 | 70% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Colorado State
|
+2.3 | 148.6 | 59% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
North Carolina
|
+0.2 | 138.1 | 47% | 85–62 | ✗ |
Cleveland State
@
Houston
|
+16.3 | 138.8 | 89% | 56–87 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Purdue
|
+5.2 | 128.7 | 65% | 78–69 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.