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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–6 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.2 | 160.0 | 66% | 89–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.4 | 140.7 | 29% | 85–88 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.0 | 143.4 | 23% | 70–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 145.6 | 57% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 141.6 | 68% | 76–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 138.5 | 52% | 76–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 149.5 | 55% | 79–88 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 134.8 | 43% | 52–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.9 | 145.9 | 87% | 67–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 140.1 | 44% | 67–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.6 | 145.1 | 84% | 72–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 140.8 | 76% | 64–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.3 | 137.3 | 14% | 71–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 131.3 | 30% | 81–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 148.4 | 80% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 152.1 | 80% | 51–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 154.2 | 62% | 83–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.