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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–3 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+5.4 | 149.9 | 76% | 65–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 144.6 | 36% | 81–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.2 | 151.3 | 43% | 78–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.7 | 127.7 | 90% | 39–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.6 | 134.4 | 90% | 51–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 132.8 | 75% | 72–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 141.4 | 57% | 75–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 145.3 | 81% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 146.0 | 28% | 77–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.3 | 155.2 | 88% | 78–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 143.1 | 48% | 80–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.8 | 139.8 | 32% | 72–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 139.4 | 60% | 56–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 139.1 | 44% | 69–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 143.6 | 87% | 62–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 136.2 | 83% | 65–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 153.5 | 87% | 75–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 147.8 | 87% | 69–94 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.