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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–7 on winners
spread MAE 11.2
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grambling
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-7.8 | 155.4 | 24% | 81–77 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Boston University
|
+2.9 | 130.4 | 61% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
SE Louisiana
|
+8.9 | 135.7 | 79% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+2.3 | 152.7 | 58% | 82–75 | ✗ |
South Alabama
@
UL Monroe
|
-13.2 | 132.2 | 12% | 66–77 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Jackson State
|
+8.4 | 146.2 | 78% | 72–62 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Ohio State
|
+9.0 | 165.3 | 79% | 65–82 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-6.5 | 144.9 | 28% | 74–73 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Lamar
|
+5.0 | 130.7 | 67% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
New Orleans
|
-2.3 | 153.9 | 42% | 74–58 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Duke
|
+23.6 | 132.0 | 98% | 64–74 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+8.9 | 124.0 | 79% | 72–79 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Alabama State
|
+5.5 | 152.2 | 69% | 80–69 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-24.5 | 132.0 | 1% | 63–42 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Alabama A&M
|
-2.8 | 160.6 | 40% | 82–98 | ✗ |
Towson
@
Northeastern
|
+3.3 | 134.3 | 62% | 75–65 | ✗ |
UCLA
@
USC
|
-3.1 | 138.5 | 39% | 82–76 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Arizona
|
+0.7 | 155.8 | 52% | 75–86 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Georgetown
|
-5.7 | 139.7 | 30% | 66–41 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.