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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–6 on winners spread MAE 7.2 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Dakota @ Western Illinois	+6.3	136.1	72%	80–92	✓
Chicago State @ Coastal Carolina	+4.2	146.1	65%	74–70	✗
Colgate @ Boston University	-3.3	148.3	38%	64–51	✓
Duke @ Virginia Tech	+1.2	134.1	54%	75–78	✓
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy	+8.5	161.2	78%	76–67	✗
Pennsylvania @ Hartford	-16.5	140.5	7%	76–52	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central	+9.8	138.5	81%	59–58	✗
Coppin State @ Howard	+7.9	159.6	76%	76–90	✓
Norfolk State @ Morgan State	-0.1	146.0	50%	71–77	✗
Delaware State @ South Carolina State	+6.7	151.1	73%	88–85	✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State	+11.8	132.9	86%	58–59	✓
Grambling @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-2.5	129.8	41%	77–70	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State	+12.5	147.5	87%	68–76	✓
Southern @ Mississippi Valley State	-10.7	135.5	17%	84–70	✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama State	-0.1	140.9	50%	71–65	✓
Kansas @ Baylor	+2.9	152.9	60%	69–75	✓
New Mexico @ Nevada	+3.1	146.5	61%	94–97	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M	-1.6	135.4	44%	59–67	✗
Penn State @ Rutgers	+7.7	128.9	76%	45–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.