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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–3 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina
@
Clemson
|
+5.7 | 149.2 | 74% | 65–85 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Alabama State
|
-3.8 | 142.3 | 32% | 81–82 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Prairie View A&M
|
-0.9 | 147.6 | 43% | 78–67 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alcorn State
|
+17.3 | 128.4 | 90% | 39–86 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
McNeese
|
+16.9 | 134.1 | 90% | 51–67 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+6.0 | 134.2 | 74% | 72–60 | ✗ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+1.1 | 139.4 | 58% | 75–85 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Incarnate Word
|
+8.8 | 146.4 | 81% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Maryland Eastern Shore
|
-5.7 | 146.8 | 26% | 77–57 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Jackson State
|
+16.0 | 154.3 | 89% | 78–94 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Texas Southern
|
+0.8 | 140.4 | 51% | 80–77 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Alabama A&M
|
-3.3 | 137.9 | 36% | 72–61 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Lamar
|
+1.9 | 137.7 | 60% | 56–67 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Houston Christian
|
-0.5 | 139.0 | 49% | 69–60 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Campbell
|
+14.4 | 142.7 | 88% | 62–66 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Houston
|
+10.8 | 138.9 | 83% | 65–76 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+12.0 | 151.7 | 87% | 75–87 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Nevada
|
+15.2 | 145.2 | 88% | 69–94 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.