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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Martin
@
Alabama State
|
+6.0 | 140.1 | 69% | 93–103 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Wright State
|
+8.0 | 144.1 | 78% | 79–88 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Delaware State
|
+5.7 | 139.5 | 62% | 59–71 | ✓ |
Maine
@
Duquesne
|
+1.4 | 133.0 | 56% | 61–56 | ✗ |
Dartmouth
@
Notre Dame
|
+15.0 | 140.6 | 86% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Villanova
|
+27.8 | 151.7 | 91% | 72–86 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
St. John's
|
+15.4 | 156.6 | 88% | 77–99 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+11.9 | 150.5 | 85% | 76–78 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Green Bay
|
-3.3 | 152.1 | 30% | 88–67 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
East Carolina
|
+4.9 | 139.9 | 70% | 74–67 | ✗ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Pittsburgh
|
+19.5 | 149.1 | 87% | 56–96 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Louisville
|
+12.6 | 141.2 | 86% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
UL Monroe
|
+10.6 | 148.6 | 86% | 73–89 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Kentucky
|
+31.8 | 152.4 | 91% | 67–78 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
Utah Valley
|
+8.0 | 145.9 | 76% | 57–80 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Louisiana
|
-4.8 | 140.8 | 32% | 61–68 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
BYU
|
+19.2 | 152.7 | 89% | 67–95 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
San Diego State
|
+16.9 | 142.9 | 87% | 75–81 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Nevada
|
+7.5 | 136.4 | 75% | 63–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.