Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -380 UNA +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -3.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -4.0 (-11.0) | 139.3 (+1.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.9 (-11.9) | 139.9 (+1.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -4.7 (-11.7) | 140.4 (+0.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -4.7 (-11.7) | 137.9 (+3.1) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#168) | 0.3 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#200) | -0.61 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#230) | -0.74 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#193) | 0.457 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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