Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -2500 EKU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +40 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -18.7 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -18.6 (+21.4) | 148.5 (+3.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -19.5 (+20.5) | 149.1 (+2.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -17.4 (+22.6) | 149.4 (+2.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -20.2 (+19.8) | 149.1 (+2.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#18) | 1.2 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#22) | -0.33 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#21) | 0.01 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.682 (#9) | 0.477 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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