Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ULM -800 UAPB +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +16 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -14.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -10.7 (+5.3) | 147.8 (+14.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -10.6 (+5.4) | 148.6 (+13.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -10.7 (+5.3) | 149.6 (+12.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -9.3 (+6.7) | 150.6 (+11.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-11 | 4-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#334) | -21.1 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#347) | -2.24 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.67 (#346) | -2.87 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#344) | 0.396 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 56.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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