Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UL -200 SELA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SELA -6.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SELA -4.5 (+11.5) | 139.4 (-10.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SELA -2.6 (+9.6) | 137.3 (-8.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | SELA -5.2 (+12.2) | 139.6 (-10.6) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SELA -4.8 (+11.8) | 140.8 (-11.8) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | UL 58 – 52 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 5-12 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#345) | -0.6 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.50 (#359) | -0.86 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.41 (#357) | -1.14 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#295) | 0.458 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 27.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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