Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -1600 UTEP +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -13.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -11.9 (-8.9) | 140.6 (+10.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -12.6 (-9.6) | 141.2 (+9.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -11.8 (-8.8) | 140.5 (+10.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -10.3 (-7.3) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#40) | 2.6 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#58) | 0.41 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#45) | 0.17 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#51) | 0.505 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 28.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 39.9% |
Game Analysis
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