Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -7500 BRY +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +22 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -18.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -17.3 (+4.7) | 158.7 (+17.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -15.4 (+6.6) | 156.6 (+19.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -15.5 (+6.5) | 157.6 (+18.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -16.3 (+5.7) | 160.4 (+15.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-2 |
| Home | 19-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#31) | 0.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#56) | -0.35 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#43) | -0.30 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#35) | 0.491 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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