Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -26.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -28.5 (-14.5) | 149.2 (+8.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -27.8 (-13.8) | 151.7 (+6.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -23.4 (-9.4) | 152.6 (+5.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -26.0 (-12.0) | 151.3 (+6.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#54) | -12.2 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#160) | -2.37 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#160) | -3.39 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#133) | 0.364 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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