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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–1 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pennsylvania
@
Illinois
|
+20.2 | 150.5 | 90% | 70–105 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Georgia
|
+2.0 | 169.5 | 57% | 102–77 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Houston
|
+19.9 | 133.2 | 90% | 47–78 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Gonzaga
|
+20.1 | 149.4 | 90% | 64–73 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Kentucky
|
+2.7 | 153.3 | 59% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Texas Tech
|
+9.1 | 152.5 | 82% | 71–91 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
Arizona
|
+22.2 | 143.3 | 90% | 58–92 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Virginia
|
+17.3 | 146.2 | 89% | 73–82 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Iowa State
|
+22.8 | 145.7 | 90% | 74–108 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Alabama
|
+11.9 | 159.1 | 85% | 70–90 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Villanova
|
-0.1 | 144.3 | 48% | 86–76 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Tennessee
|
+9.7 | 147.9 | 81% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Clemson
|
-1.0 | 131.5 | 47% | 67–61 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
St. John's
|
+11.6 | 133.4 | 85% | 53–79 | ✓ |
UCF
@
UCLA
|
+4.8 | 146.9 | 70% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Purdue
|
+24.1 | 157.0 | 90% | 71–104 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.