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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–4 on winners spread MAE 9.2 15 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
New Hampshire @ UConn	+18.9	151.6	90%	64–84	✓
Saint Peter's @ Rutgers	+9.2	127.1	78%	40–71	✓
Troy @ Eastern Kentucky	+3.1	145.9	59%	76–77	✓
Presbyterian @ Elon	+3.3	150.9	61%	79–82	✓
Manhattan @ Fordham	+4.0	134.0	56%	61–93	✓
Western Illinois @ Wisconsin	+19.3	145.3	90%	49–71	✓
UMBC @ Hampton	+0.5	159.4	46%	80–76	✗
Utah Tech @ Lindenwood	+2.8	144.6	63%	73–66	✗
Northern Illinois @ Northwestern	+3.9	141.5	58%	67–89	✓
Houston Christian @ TCU	+24.7	156.5	91%	64–101	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Fresno State	+3.3	151.4	63%	69–65	✗
Eastern Washington @ Washington State	+23.3	149.7	91%	72–82	✓
Utah @ Saint Mary's	+1.5	137.9	54%	78–71	✗
North Dakota State @ San José State	+10.6	133.2	81%	65–78	✓
Georgia Southern @ Michigan State	+24.4	136.5	91%	55–86	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.