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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–9 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma State
@
West Virginia
|
+5.2 | 147.1 | 70% | 67–85 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Duke
|
+17.3 | 138.7 | 90% | 62–79 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Morgan State
|
-0.8 | 145.0 | 45% | 76–89 | ✗ |
North Carolina Central
@
Maryland Eastern Shore
|
+1.2 | 140.0 | 55% | 68–63 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Delaware State
|
+1.5 | 149.6 | 57% | 68–69 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Norfolk State
|
+15.2 | 157.4 | 89% | 69–62 | ✗ |
East Texas A&M
@
Nicholls
|
+6.6 | 146.4 | 74% | 72–71 | ✗ |
Hawai'i
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
-3.7 | 129.7 | 31% | 61–50 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Texas Southern
|
+2.8 | 141.9 | 63% | 59–64 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Alabama State
|
+4.3 | 138.9 | 68% | 70–65 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
TCU
|
+1.0 | 150.6 | 52% | 63–58 | ✗ |
Minnesota
@
Illinois
|
+16.2 | 139.3 | 90% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Alabama A&M
|
+8.2 | 131.2 | 80% | 77–71 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+10.8 | 135.0 | 86% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+5.0 | 133.1 | 69% | 74–60 | ✗ |
UC Riverside
@
Cal State Northridge
|
-6.2 | 134.8 | 25% | 96–76 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Cal Poly
|
-10.2 | 131.3 | 16% | 59–56 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Xavier
|
+9.2 | 148.2 | 82% | 64–63 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.