Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -200 VILL +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -9.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -9.4 (-10.4) | 148.4 (-21.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -8.4 (-9.4) | 145.4 (-18.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.2 (-10.2) | 148.2 (-21.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -8.8 (-9.8) | 147.6 (-20.6) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#22) | 7.0 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#20) | 0.82 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#14) | 1.24 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#22) | 0.520 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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