Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -200 BCU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -6.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -3.7 (-8.7) | 140.3 (-5.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -4.4 (-9.4) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -4.3 (-9.3) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -4.1 (-9.1) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | BCU 82 – 71 ALST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | BCU 69 – 54 ALST |
| Feb 25, 2025 | BCU 70 – 68 ALST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BCU 67 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BCU 90 – 84 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-18 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#345) | -15.0 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#342) | -2.04 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#342) | -2.71 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#332) | 0.380 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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