Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -5000 LOU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -22.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -19.3 (-2.3) | 139.2 (+1.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -16.5 (+0.5) | 138.2 (+2.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -17.3 (-0.3) | 138.7 (+2.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -18.4 (-1.4) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-18 |
| Home | 16-0 | 4-13 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#31) | -7.2 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#23) | -1.64 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#26) | -1.25 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#18) | 0.427 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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