Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | PV -700 MVSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | PV -13.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -11.7 (-9.7) | 136.7 (-4.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -10.8 (-8.8) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -10.8 (-8.8) | 135.0 (-3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -11.0 (-9.0) | 135.7 (-3.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PV 72 – 62 MVSU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PV 70 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PV 74 – 65 MVSU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | MVSU 57 – 51 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-14 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#262) | -15.3 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#310) | -2.59 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#292) | -3.03 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#322) | 0.390 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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