Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +225 HOW -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -0.2 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -1.2 (+14.2) | 143.7 (+21.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -0.3 (+13.3) | 144.0 (+21.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -0.8 (+13.8) | 145.0 (+20.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.6 (+13.6) | 147.0 (+18.0) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 10-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#307) | -4.3 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#262) | 0.02 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#282) | -0.35 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#218) | 0.500 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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