Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UMES +138 NCCU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -0.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -0.8 (-5.8) | 138.8 (-7.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -0.2 (-4.8) | 135.0 (-4.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -1.2 (-6.2) | 140.0 (-9.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -0.9 (-5.9) | 140.6 (-9.6) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#250) | -0.5 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#156) | -0.53 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#179) | -0.46 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#138) | 0.494 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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