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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–3 on winners
spread MAE 9.7
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.2 | 145.2 | 73% | 93–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 145.2 | 77% | 79–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 137.1 | 70% | 59–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 132.7 | 54% | 61–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.1 | 143.3 | 87% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+28.5 | 149.2 | 91% | 72–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.3 | 158.7 | 88% | 77–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 150.8 | 84% | 76–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 149.4 | 30% | 88–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 139.3 | 68% | 74–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.6 | 148.5 | 88% | 56–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 140.6 | 86% | 74–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 147.8 | 86% | 73–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+31.4 | 152.3 | 91% | 67–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 143.7 | 75% | 57–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 139.4 | 37% | 61–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.0 | 154.5 | 89% | 67–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.4 | 143.9 | 86% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 137.6 | 79% | 63–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.