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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+11.0 | 141.2 | 83% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 141.9 | 65% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.9 | 139.6 | 88% | 52–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 132.7 | 33% | 67–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 147.3 | 60% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.6 | 155.6 | 89% | 68–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 148.6 | 85% | 59–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 139.1 | 35% | 81–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.8 | 141.1 | 17% | 63–48 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 129.7 | 42% | 64–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 143.8 | 46% | 58–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.8 | 143.5 | 35% | 61–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.0 | 144.1 | 45% | 77–95 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.1 | 150.4 | 30% | 98–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 145.6 | 63% | 81–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 150.8 | 32% | 83–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 146.8 | 46% | 99–97 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 146.8 | 60% | 64–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 145.1 | 82% | 79–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 146.2 | 47% | 88–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.7 | 143.4 | 75% | 90–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.4 | 149.1 | 85% | 60–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.6 | 155.3 | 18% | 85–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.7 | 139.5 | 21% | 73–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 139.3 | 56% | 64–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 146.5 | 67% | 56–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 134.3 | 81% | 74–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 137.4 | 26% | 75–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 146.7 | 72% | 65–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 140.8 | 44% | 70–55 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.