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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wake Forest
@
Duke
|
+6.6 | 154.3 | 72% | 69–77 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Bucknell
|
+2.9 | 145.9 | 61% | 71–63 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
Incarnate Word
|
-5.1 | 157.3 | 32% | 67–76 | ✗ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Nicholls
|
-0.7 | 143.1 | 48% | 63–67 | ✗ |
New Orleans
@
Northwestern State
|
+3.5 | 156.4 | 62% | 59–70 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
TCU
|
+15.7 | 153.1 | 92% | 65–81 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
East Texas A&M
|
-1.2 | 128.7 | 45% | 79–77 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Houston Christian
|
-19.0 | 147.8 | 4% | 105–54 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+0.4 | 139.8 | 52% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-1.1 | 165.4 | 46% | 76–63 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-11.4 | 138.9 | 15% | 72–55 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Grambling
|
+7.7 | 138.3 | 76% | 60–50 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
Texas Tech
|
+0.1 | 147.1 | 50% | 50–79 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Towson
|
+12.8 | 137.1 | 88% | 55–80 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Florida A&M
|
-0.5 | 147.2 | 48% | 61–58 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Butler
|
-2.5 | 155.9 | 41% | 78–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.