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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
App State
@
Norfolk State
|
+2.1 | 136.3 | 58% | 53–54 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Boise State
|
+0.8 | 145.0 | 53% | 84–85 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Michigan State
|
-3.0 | 138.5 | 39% | 86–80 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Florida
|
+1.7 | 138.2 | 56% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Arkansas
|
-0.6 | 163.0 | 48% | 68–85 | ✗ |
Drexel
@
Illinois
|
+17.7 | 144.6 | 95% | 49–78 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Texas Tech
|
+3.3 | 130.0 | 62% | 53–65 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Ohio State
|
+16.0 | 161.3 | 93% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Hartford
@
Baylor
|
+20.7 | 141.4 | 97% | 55–79 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+4.2 | 133.7 | 65% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Tennessee
|
+9.2 | 130.8 | 80% | 70–56 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Oklahoma State
|
+5.3 | 143.0 | 69% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Colorado State
|
+1.5 | 150.9 | 55% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
North Carolina
|
-1.1 | 135.7 | 46% | 85–62 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Houston
|
+20.0 | 131.4 | 97% | 56–87 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Purdue
|
+5.0 | 125.0 | 68% | 78–69 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.