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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–2 on winners
spread MAE 9.7
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Robert Morris
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+4.5 | 141.9 | 66% | 102–88 | ✗ |
Drake
@
Indiana State
|
-10.0 | 143.5 | 18% | 81–63 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Cleveland State
|
+4.7 | 142.8 | 67% | 74–81 | ✓ |
Hartford
@
New Hampshire
|
+4.4 | 135.0 | 66% | 69–77 | ✓ |
Binghamton
@
UMBC
|
+20.3 | 136.6 | 97% | 67–74 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Monmouth
|
+3.2 | 166.1 | 62% | 66–84 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Wright State
|
+22.1 | 137.7 | 98% | 77–90 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Stony Brook
|
+3.4 | 141.5 | 62% | 58–73 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Vermont
|
+4.9 | 132.8 | 67% | 78–92 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Detroit Mercy
|
+9.4 | 157.1 | 80% | 83–80 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Vanderbilt
|
+21.7 | 150.8 | 98% | 59–87 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Southern Illinois
|
+19.6 | 137.9 | 96% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+13.8 | 152.7 | 90% | 60–90 | ✓ |
Missouri State
@
Northern Iowa
|
-3.6 | 158.9 | 37% | 79–59 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Providence
|
+5.3 | 154.5 | 69% | 90–95 | ✓ |
|
Robert Morris
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+4.5 | 141.9 | 66% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.