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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–5 on winners
spread MAE 11.5
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
@
Minnesota
|
-7.7 | 177.0 | 24% | 95–102 | ✗ |
Houston
@
UCF
|
-6.9 | 135.0 | 26% | 63–54 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Louisville
|
+11.3 | 124.2 | 85% | 59–62 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Cleveland State
|
-2.5 | 135.7 | 41% | 69–87 | ✗ |
Ohio State
@
Northwestern
|
+4.1 | 147.9 | 65% | 70–71 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
LSU
|
+25.4 | 152.2 | 99% | 80–86 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Towson
|
+9.7 | 144.6 | 81% | 73–78 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Gonzaga
|
-1.6 | 148.1 | 44% | 75–98 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Illinois
|
+14.4 | 149.9 | 90% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Detroit Mercy
|
+13.3 | 157.1 | 89% | 77–75 | ✗ |
Norfolk State
@
George Mason
|
+5.0 | 132.4 | 67% | 68–65 | ✗ |
Green Bay
@
Wright State
|
+26.5 | 144.8 | 99% | 53–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.