Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -5.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.3 (-8.3) | 134.9 (-1.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.5 (-8.5) | 134.5 (-1.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -6.4 (-9.4) | 136.7 (-3.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.4 (-8.4) | 134.5 (-1.5) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#198) | -3.9 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#137) | -0.49 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#185) | -1.07 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#146) | 0.465 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.