Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | UCF +280 HOU -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +9 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -6.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -2.1 (-6.9) | 135.7 (-18.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -5.3 (-3.7) | 132.6 (-15.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -2.4 (-6.6) | 137.5 (-20.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -3.5 (-5.5) | 133.9 (-16.9) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-3 |
| Home | 6-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#80) | 16.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#11) | 4.16 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.48 (#8) | 6.53 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.752 (#3) | 0.718 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 43.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 43.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 26.0% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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