Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -380 UVA +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +23 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -1.8 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -2.1 (+20.9) | 145.2 (+27.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -1.4 (+21.6) | 142.1 (+30.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -3.5 (+19.5) | 143.4 (+29.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -2.8 (+20.2) | 147.0 (+26.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-1 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 15-0 | 13-4 |
| Home | 12-0 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-0 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 12-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#8) | 15.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.15 (#1) | 0.72 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.63 (#1) | 2.07 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.767 (#2) | 0.547 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.1% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 13.0% |
Game Analysis
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