Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | ILL -300 IU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -14.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -10.9 (-1.9) | 150.4 (-21.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.1 (-1.1) | 146.0 (-17.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -9.6 (-0.6) | 150.3 (-21.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -10.5 (-1.5) | 148.8 (-19.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ILL 71 – 51 IU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ILL 94 – 69 IU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ILL 70 – 62 IU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | IU 71 – 68 ILL |
| Jan 20, 2023 | IU 80 – 65 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 6-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#2) | 10.4 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#19) | 1.58 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.89 (#11) | 3.06 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#25) | 0.570 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 43.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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