Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | PROV -280 DEP +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +5 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -5.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -4.4 (+0.6) | 150.7 (+34.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -9.8 (-4.8) | 152.6 (+32.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -4.9 (+0.1) | 151.7 (+33.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 5-14 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 2-13 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#94) | 3.8 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#78) | 0.48 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#85) | 0.69 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#98) | 0.462 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 59.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 67.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 25.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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