Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +28 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -21.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -15.9 (+12.1) | 146.2 (-0.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -16.4 (+11.6) | 144.3 (+1.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -20.1 (+7.9) | 142.8 (+3.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -18.2 (+9.8) | 146.4 (-0.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 6-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 4-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#191) | -18.9 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#207) | -0.93 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#204) | -1.30 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#247) | 0.518 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 39.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 26.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 64.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 37.9% |
Game Analysis
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