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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alabama State
|
+17.0 | 167.1 | 90% | 91–93 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Wichita State
|
+7.5 | 152.1 | 79% | 91–72 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Rutgers
|
-3.4 | 157.1 | 33% | 75–63 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
SE Louisiana
|
+0.1 | 141.7 | 49% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
East Texas A&M
|
-3.2 | 139.3 | 36% | 83–61 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
New Orleans
|
-8.0 | 148.3 | 22% | 97–83 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Northwestern State
|
-5.6 | 131.5 | 28% | 92–69 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+6.1 | 128.4 | 72% | 83–73 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Coppin State
|
-10.2 | 133.1 | 16% | 85–77 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alabama A&M
|
+10.0 | 138.5 | 85% | 67–79 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Lamar
|
+4.0 | 135.0 | 70% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Prairie View A&M
|
-2.0 | 145.5 | 39% | 84–80 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Houston
|
+15.1 | 127.9 | 89% | 46–65 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Texas Southern
|
+2.1 | 135.7 | 56% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Minnesota
|
-9.1 | 139.4 | 19% | 89–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Morgan State
|
-1.9 | 150.7 | 38% | 98–102 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Xavier
|
+0.5 | 148.3 | 52% | 82–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.