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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–1 on winners
spread MAE 9.7
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pennsylvania
@
Illinois
|
+22.6 | 154.5 | 98% | 70–105 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Georgia
|
+0.4 | 176.0 | 51% | 102–77 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Houston
|
+20.8 | 137.0 | 97% | 47–78 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Gonzaga
|
+23.0 | 159.4 | 98% | 64–73 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Kentucky
|
+2.7 | 159.5 | 60% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Texas Tech
|
+8.8 | 160.5 | 79% | 71–91 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
Arizona
|
+29.0 | 151.0 | 100% | 58–92 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Virginia
|
+16.7 | 148.9 | 94% | 73–82 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Iowa State
|
+24.8 | 152.7 | 99% | 74–108 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Alabama
|
+12.2 | 165.3 | 87% | 70–90 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Villanova
|
-1.9 | 150.1 | 43% | 86–76 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Tennessee
|
+12.1 | 155.5 | 86% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Clemson
|
-2.0 | 132.7 | 43% | 67–61 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
St. John's
|
+9.0 | 132.7 | 79% | 53–79 | ✓ |
UCF
@
UCLA
|
+4.9 | 157.4 | 67% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Purdue
|
+23.3 | 165.8 | 98% | 71–104 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.