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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–2 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wofford
@
Charleston
|
+4.3 | 150.9 | 65% | 67–77 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Central Arkansas
|
+5.9 | 136.6 | 70% | 71–73 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Grambling
|
+4.5 | 129.9 | 66% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+5.9 | 151.0 | 70% | 66–74 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+6.9 | 156.4 | 73% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Rice
|
+20.0 | 136.8 | 97% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Northern Colorado
|
+11.6 | 143.4 | 85% | 76–81 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Northern Iowa
|
+12.6 | 146.0 | 87% | 76–104 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Texas Tech
|
+27.0 | 151.8 | 99% | 50–86 | ✓ |
South Alabama
@
TCU
|
+7.2 | 132.9 | 74% | 49–58 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
UTEP
|
+23.1 | 130.3 | 98% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
New Mexico State
|
+4.1 | 148.4 | 65% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Drexel
@
Howard
|
-0.5 | 143.2 | 48% | 68–65 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
St. John's
|
+9.4 | 155.9 | 80% | 61–89 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
UNC Asheville
|
-1.0 | 168.6 | 47% | 81–95 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.