Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -250 WOF +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -4.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -4.0 (+6.0) | 144.2 (-0.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -4.2 (+5.8) | 145.0 (-1.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -4.1 (+5.9) | 144.2 (-0.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -4.4 (+5.6) | 142.3 (+1.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#162) | 0.3 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#64) | -0.53 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#86) | -0.06 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#39) | 0.468 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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