Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LT +130 GCU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | LT -5.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -5.4 (+2.6) | 149.5 (-9.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -5.1 (+2.9) | 146.9 (-6.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -5.0 (+3.0) | 146.3 (-6.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -4.7 (+3.3) | 146.2 (-6.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2023 | GCU 73 – 70 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#105) | 2.8 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#89) | 1.05 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#88) | 1.16 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#113) | 0.579 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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