Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CARK -200 CIT +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -6.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -6.1 (-4.1) | 138.7 (+5.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -6.2 (-4.2) | 137.2 (+6.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -5.8 (-3.8) | 137.0 (+7.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -3.9 (-1.9) | 139.5 (+4.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 0-18 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-12 |
| Away | 1-16 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L24 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#344) | -13.7 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#342) | -3.91 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#332) | -5.40 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#351) | 0.308 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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