This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
Central Arkansas Bears
73 71
FINAL SoCon/ASUN Challenge
The Citadel Bulldogs
Farris Center · December 17, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread CARK -4.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money CARK -200 / CIT +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total CARK win
Actual CARK +2 144 Won
Massey CARK -6.1 (-4.1)
Massey Totals 135.9 (+8.1)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 96%
Baseline Plus ML CARK -6.1 (-4.1) 138.7 (+5.3) 70%
Baseline ML CARK -6.2 (-4.2) 137.2 (+6.8) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML CARK -5.8 (-3.8) 137.0 (+7.0) 70%
Efficiency Plus ML CARK -3.9 (-1.9) 139.5 (+4.5) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CARK CIT
Overall 9-24 5-25
Conference 4-14 0-18
Home 7-7 5-12
Away 1-16 0-12
Neutral 1-1 0-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L24
Avg Pts For 68.5 63.0
Avg Pts Against 79.4 76.9
Massey -11.8 (#344) -13.7 (#350)
Bradley-Terry -2.55 (#342) -3.91 (#362)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.02 (#332) -5.40 (#362)
RPI 0.360 (#351) 0.308 (#363)
Shooting & Four Factors CARK CIT
FG% 37.1% 41.8%
3PT% 27.0% 25.0%
REB / G 34.8 37.0
OREB / G 10.8 12.2
AST / TO 1.03 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.8% 47.5%
TOV% 17.8% 20.6%
ORB% 26.9% 31.9%
FT Rate 21.9% 14.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.9% 49.8%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 14.1%
DRB% 67.5% 72.1%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 28.9%

Game Analysis

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