Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -1000 USA +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +9 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -10.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -8.8 (+0.2) | 136.7 (-29.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -9.2 (-0.2) | 137.2 (-30.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -8.8 (+0.2) | 136.0 (-29.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -11.4 (-2.4) | 134.8 (-27.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#90) | -0.7 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#129) | -0.30 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#126) | -0.28 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#144) | 0.476 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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