Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UTEP -1800 TAR +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UTEP -23.4 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -18.7 (-13.7) | 130.6 (-1.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -19.1 (-14.1) | 132.3 (-3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -17.8 (-12.8) | 133.9 (-4.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -14.4 (-9.4) | 131.1 (-2.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#103) | -15.0 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#143) | -1.54 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#157) | -2.86 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#158) | 0.466 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 30.3% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.4% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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